沧州一诺塑料制品有限公司

    上半年，塑料市场可谓跌跌不休，价格下跌了近30%，逼近生产企业的成本。虽然眼下下跌动力趋弱，但记者从全国各大石化炼厂及塑料制品企业调查了解到，由于国内企业大量扩能、中东等地国外低价货源冲击、人民币升值预期带来出口受创以及国内需求低迷等诸多因素影响，预计下半年塑料市场虽将在成本区域获得支撑并出现间断性反弹，但整体疲弱的趋势或将难以改变。
     塑料市场今年上半年的价格走势可谓“节点分明”。今年春节长假后，中石化、中石油借助原油涨至80美元/桶的利好，节后纷纷涨价挂牌；2月份至4月份，国内新增产能陆续开工投产，但进口量有所缩减加上春节过后的农地膜消费旺季，多空因素交织，各方纠结争夺，使塑料价格宽幅震荡。
     下半年国内塑料市场供大于求局面将更加突出，企业生产经营环境仍会较为艰苦，竞争将继续加剧，利润空间也将十分有限，塑料市场面临内外夹击，后市仍将难解疲弱之势。究其原因主要有以下几个方面：
     ——国内大量扩能产量大增  以国内PE产量统计数据可以看出，2009年底至2010年6月份的国内产量增长明显，同比增幅接近40%，天津乙烯、盘锦乙烯装置开工逐步正常，镇海炼化也已于3月份启动100万吨级乙烯裂解装置配套45万吨级线型低密度聚乙烯装置。
    ——国外大量低价进口冲击  中东新增产能也在加速投产，沙特、伊朗、阿联酋等国的大型PE、ＰＰ等装置也将陆续投产，且用乙烷作为原料的PE进入市场，使PE市场竞争日趋激烈。阿联酋已经于7月初开启其新增的145万吨/年的裂解装置，预计该装置每月将有1万吨乙烯需要出售；沙特克耶邦130万吨/年的裂解装置也将于8月份增加对外供应。
    ——出口受创  下半年，欧美等塑料产品进口大国经济形势依旧严峻，消费低迷，难以拉动中国产品的出口。同时，我国决定自7月15日起取消乙烯聚合物的废碎料及下脚料等部分塑料及制品出口退税率。对于塑料行业来说，此次调整预计会对其下游制品生产企业形成一定的不利影响。
    ——国内需求低迷  2008年我国投放4万亿元，全国上下掀起基础设施建设的浪潮，塑料产品需求也得到大幅提升，但这种需求在2009年达到高潮后，现已进入了低迷时期，拉动塑料消费的多个行业也出现产能过剩，市场供应量持续增长，下游消费却出现低迷。
    ——库存高位消化仍待时日  根据目前国内装置增产及检修情况计算，今年集中检修期的涉及产能不足大型PE产能的10%，相对国内月度150万吨以上的供应量，供需矛盾仍较突出。据透露，目前多数石化装置开工率接近满负荷，而下游工厂及贸易商难有集中性采购出现，石化库存维持高位，估计目前仅PE总库存就达60万吨。

 In the first half, indeed stumble endlessly plastics market, prices fell nearly 30%, approaching the cost of production enterprises.  Although the weaker power now down, but the country's major petrochemical refinery, and from the plastic products business surveys, that since a lot of expansion of domestic enterprises, the Middle East and other places overseas cheap supply shocks, the yuan appreciation is expected to bring hit exports and domestic sluggish demand and many other factors, is expected in the second half although the plastics market will find support at the cost of the region and the emergence of intermittent rebound, but the overall weak trend or will be difficult to change.
Plastics market price of the first half of this year has been "node clear." After the Spring Festival holiday this year, Sinopec, CNPC with crude rose 80 U.S. dollars / barrel positive, post-holiday prices have listed; February to April, China has begun new capacity into production, but imports have been reduced with consumption of agricultural plastic film after the Spring Festival season, long and short intertwine, tangle parties compete to plastic prices fluctuated.
The second half of the domestic plastic market oversupply situation will become more prominent, production will be more difficult business environment, competition will continue to grow, profit margins will be very limited, plastics market is facing pincer attack from both inside and outside, the weak market outlook will remain intractable situation. The reasons are mainly the following aspects:
 - Expansion of domestic production of a large number of greatly increased production of statistical data on domestic PE can be seen, by the end of 2009 to June 2010 marked the domestic output growth, year on year increase of nearly 40%, Tianjin ethylene, Panjin Ethylene Plant began gradually to normal Zhenhai refining was also launched in March of one million tons-class supporting 450 thousand tons of ethylene cracker grade linear low density polyethylene unit.
- A large number of cheap foreign imports also accelerated the impact of new capacity put into the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE and other countries of the large PE, PP and other devices will also be introduced into production, and the use of ethane as a raw material to enter the market PE to PE market become increasingly competitive.  United Arab Emirates in early July has opened its new 1.45 million tons / year cracker, the device is expected to have 10,000 tons of ethylene per month will need to sell; 1.3 million tons / year cracker will also in August increasing foreign supply.
 - Exports hit the second half of Europe and the United States and other plastic products importer of the economic situation remains grim, low consumption, is difficult to pull the export of Chinese products. Meanwhile, China decided on July 15 lifted waste and scrap of polymers of ethylene and scraps of plastic parts and products such as export tax rebate rate. For the plastics industry, the adjustment of its downstream products is expected to produce adverse effects on certain businesses.
 - Sluggish domestic demand in China in 2008 injected 4 trillion yuan, infrastructure across the country set off a wave of demand for plastic products has increased substantially, but this needs to reach climax in 2009, has now entered a downturn, pulling Plastics consumption also appeared in several sectors, overcapacity, the market supply growth and lower consumption is depressed.
 - High inventory digestion time yet to yield under the current domestic installations and maintenance terms and focus on maintenance this year, involving capacity planning of large-scale production capacity of 10% of PE, the relative monthly 1.5 million tons more than domestic supply, demand and supply remain a prominent problem .  According to reports, most of the existing petrochemical plant operating rates close to full capacity, while the downstream factories and traders appear difficult to focus on sourcing, petrochemical stocks remain high, estimated the total stock PE only reached 600,000 tons.